TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$912

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a real-time price chart reflecting trader sentiment, along with the total volume traded—currently $912—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $907. This provides a snapshot of how actively traders are participating and what they collectively believe about the short-term direction of gold. The dashboard also shows the best available prices for buying or selling contracts related to this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental or technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate factors that are difficult for analysts to quantify, such as unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in investor sentiment. This market provides a unique, real-time assessment of probabilities.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the “up” contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:15 PM ET and 3:30 PM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 3:30 PM ET than at 3:15 PM ET, the “up” outcome will win; otherwise, the “down” outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or sudden shifts in currency exchange rates, could influence trader sentiment and lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market. Any surprise news impacting global risk appetite could also be a key catalyst.