TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$285

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $285, and the total volume traded to date, which is $285. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many financial analysts provide price targets and directional predictions, this market aggregates the views of a diverse group of individuals, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movement. Often, this market can reflect information and insights not yet fully incorporated into standard analyst reports, potentially offering a more nuanced view of the likely outcome. It’s a fascinating comparison of expert opinion versus crowd-sourced prediction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more sensitive the price becomes to new information and trading activity, as traders refine their predictions. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 3:00 PM ET than at 2:45 PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often drive gold prices due to its status as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also create volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a shift in market sentiment. Finally, large-scale trading activity by institutional investors could also move this market considerably before Oct 21, 2026.