TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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40,345

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$271

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $270, and the total overall volume, which is $271. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders on Predict. Often, prediction markets can incorporate information and perspectives more quickly than traditional forecasts, as they are constantly updated by a diverse group of participants. It’s a useful exercise to compare the implied probabilities in this market with the expectations outlined in financial news and reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time assessment of probability. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders participating in this market, and it’s a dynamic indicator of expectations. Trading volume and order book depth also influence the price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 2:45AM-3:00AM ET window on October 21st. Whether the market closes indicating “Up” or “Down” will depend on whether the price has increased or decreased during that timeframe, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. The result will be publicly available following the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant changes in the US dollar's strength or unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries could influence trading activity in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements.