TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$345

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$345
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:15 AM and 2:30 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a live view of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $344. Total volume for this market is $345, indicating overall interest. This information helps traders assess sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market’s participants are pricing in a more nuanced outlook. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and allow traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This creates a dynamic assessment that can diverge from static analyst reports or polls, offering a unique signal about potential price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds are determined solely by traders on Predict, and aren’t influenced by external factors or other prediction venues.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:15 AM and 2:30 AM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in major regions or shifts in global trade policies, also tend to drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Even significant currency fluctuations, particularly involving the US dollar, could move this market, as gold is typically priced in dollars.