TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$117

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 1:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$2,018
$117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $117 with $116 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and where the sentiment lies.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are providing projections for gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls and expert opinions, especially when unexpected events or catalysts emerge that haven’t been fully factored into conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will reflect the prevailing sentiment and any new information that becomes available, impacting the odds of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 21st. A price increase will determine one outcome, while a price decrease will determine the other. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the result of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant changes in global currency valuations could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.