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419,492

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,660

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12PM and 12:15PM ET on October 21st. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,621. The total volume for this market is $1,660, indicating overall interest. This information helps traders assess the collective prediction and make informed decisions.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market outcomes reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals, this market provides a unique perspective based on traders’ willingness to put capital behind their beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by polls or individual analysts, as this market aggregates diverse viewpoints in a quantifiable way. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment. Traders can view the current bid and ask prices to understand the prevailing market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. If the price decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. Any price change, no matter how small, will determine the result of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, major news related to central bank monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements. Any significant shifts in these areas could lead to considerable changes in the odds within this market.