TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12AM-12:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $156, and the total market volume, which is $157. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions about gold’s performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs about the likelihood of an upward or downward price movement. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially offering a more real-time assessment of expectations than static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by traders responding to news, economic data, and their own analysis of the gold market. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that attempts to accurately represent the perceived likelihood of the event.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 AM ET and 12:15 AM ET on October 21st. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘up’, while a decrease or no change will favor those who predicted ‘down’. The final price data will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger price movements. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.