TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12:45PM-1PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$951

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12:45PM-1PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12:45PM-1PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 1:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 12:45PM-1PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$951
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T16:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T16:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 12:45PM and 1:00PM ET on October 21st. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You can view the total volume traded in this market, currently at $951, as well as the 24-hour volume, which is $950. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price changes.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer predictions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, especially when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in market sentiment. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the odds dynamically adjust as new information becomes available or trading volume increases. This mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:45PM and 1:00PM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during that timeframe, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data to ensure an objective determination.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Any news related to central bank activity or major gold-holding nations could also move this market, as traders react to perceived risks and opportunities.