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419,492

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,157

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$199
$1,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,159. The total volume for this market is $1,157, indicating the overall interest in predicting this short-term gold price fluctuation. This data allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term projections based on economic indicators, this market focuses on a very short timeframe – a 15-minute window. This leads to a more reactive and potentially volatile price discovery process. It’s common to see discrepancies between the implied probabilities in this market and the consensus view of financial analysts, as traders weigh immediate factors and potential short-term catalysts that may not be fully captured in longer-range forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of traders participating on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price change of gold between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 11:15 AM ET than at 11:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like sudden escalations in international tensions, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Even surprising statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger price fluctuations. Finally, major news related to gold mining production or significant purchases/sales by large institutions could also impact trading activity in this market.