TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$684

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$210
$684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $684. The total volume for this market is $684, indicating the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market suggests a more uncertain outlook. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and allow traders to weigh information in real-time, potentially identifying factors not fully captured in standard financial models. This allows for a dynamic assessment of potential price movements, distinct from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a direct result of real-money trading, not a statistical model or pre-defined probabilities. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 11:45 AM than at 11:30 AM, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, are also key catalysts. Even a surprising shift in investor sentiment, perhaps triggered by a prominent financial analyst's commentary, could lead to substantial price swings and corresponding changes in the odds reflected in this market. Any news impacting safe-haven asset demand will likely be a driver.