TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$775

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$215
$775
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 21st. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how predictions have shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $777. The total volume for this market is $775, indicating the overall interest from predictors. This provides a snapshot of where the crowd currently stands on the likely direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals actively putting capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts often rely on macroeconomic models and fundamental analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time sentiment. Disagreements between the two can highlight potentially overlooked factors or differing interpretations of the same data, offering valuable insights for those following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as conditions change, providing a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 10:15 AM than at 10:00 AM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international news, can also drive investment towards or away from gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy or interest rates could influence investor sentiment. Any surprise announcements or developments related to major gold-producing countries could also affect the market’s predictions.