TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,263

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$161
$1,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:45 AM and 11:00 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $1,263, with $1,267 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and track activity surrounding this short-term price prediction.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to inflation concerns, this market reflects a more nuanced view, with traders assigning probabilities to both potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by polls or financial news outlets, as this market represents a direct financial stake in the outcome, potentially leading to more informed predictions. This provides a unique signal beyond conventional wisdom.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated sentiment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution time, the more the price will likely reflect real-time market conditions and breaking news related to gold. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:45 AM and 11:00 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 11:00 AM ET than at 10:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, are also key catalysts. Even statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger substantial price movements. Finally, any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations or significant shifts in investor sentiment could influence trading activity in this market and alter the probabilities.