TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

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2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,363

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$11
$1,363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 21. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,370. The total volume for this market is $1,363. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will actually happen. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus estimates, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur, offering a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assessment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the buy and sell price indicates the cost of trading and the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 21. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these factors could cause substantial fluctuations in this market.