TOTAL VOLUME:

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410,833

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$147

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$242
$147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:45AM and 10:00AM ET on October 20th. You can view the implied probabilities, historical price action of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $146. Total volume for this market is $147. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market reflects a more nuanced view. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by polls or individual financial experts, as prediction markets aggregate a diverse range of perspectives and allow participants to update their beliefs based on new information. This dynamic can lead to a more accurate forecast than static predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time frame. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available, influencing the market price in real-time.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the gold price at 10:00AM ET on October 20th is higher or lower than its price at 9:45AM ET. The final price will be sourced from a recognized financial data provider and used to determine which outcome—gold up or gold down—is declared the winner. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions.

Several factors could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, could also trigger substantial price swings. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could influence trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.