TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$400

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$212
$400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $401. The total volume for this market is $400. This information helps traders assess market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions reveals how traders weigh various factors influencing the gold price, such as economic indicators, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. This comparison can highlight areas of agreement or disagreement between the crowd and established financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to each outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM ET on October 20th, and whether it closes higher or lower than its opening price during that period. The final outcome will be determined by a publicly available and trusted source for gold price data, ensuring transparency and accuracy in the resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in investor sentiment, influenced by news reports or market commentary, could lead to changes in trading activity and, consequently, the odds in this market.