TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$808

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$128
$808
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market provides real-time insights into how traders are pricing the likelihood of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 20th. You'll find the current odds reflecting the probability of each outcome, a price history chart showcasing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $805. Total volume for this market is $808, indicating overall interest. This information helps you understand the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on fundamental economic factors and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of non-public information within the market. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering a contrarian indicator to standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment, and the odds can change rapidly as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could influence investor sentiment toward gold. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could impact the gold price. Even significant movements in the US dollar exchange rate can exert pressure on gold prices, potentially shifting the odds in this market.