TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$616

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 8:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8PM-8:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$29
$616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified window. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market – currently at $616 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $614. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how confidence is evolving as we approach the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold due to global economic uncertainty, this market’s participants may be factoring in other variables, such as short-term technical indicators or unexpected geopolitical events. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective wisdom of traders in this market, offering a unique insight into potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing sentiment regarding gold’s potential performance.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 8:15 PM ET than at 8:00 PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations could move this market. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they are likely to affect trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds.