TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$621

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$12
$621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $620, and the total market volume, which is $621. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or directional guidance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of opinions and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see prediction markets incorporating information faster than traditional forecasts, particularly in response to breaking news or unexpected events. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price moving in a specific direction, allowing participants to express their views and potentially profit from accurate predictions. The market's depth and volume contribute to price discovery and efficiency.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:15 PM and 8:30 PM ET on October 20th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from a recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in monetary policy by central banks, like the Federal Reserve, or major currency fluctuations could trigger price movements. Even surprising statements from key financial figures could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.