TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$174

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$200
$174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $174, and the total volume traded to date, which is $174. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for gold, allowing you to gauge market sentiment and track changes in expectations.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money where their beliefs are. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than polls or expert opinions, especially when forecasting events with uncertain outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between what analysts predict and how traders are pricing in probabilities within this market, potentially highlighting overlooked factors or biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 6:45 PM to 7:00 PM ET window on October 20th. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often cause volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant changes in currency exchange rates could move this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in trader sentiment.