TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45AM-7AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$731

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45AM-7AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45AM-7AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6:45AM-7AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$101
$731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T10:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T10:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 6:45 AM and 7:00 AM ET on October 20th. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $725. Total volume for this market is $731. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical factors, this market demonstrates a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analysts often rely on models and reports, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals actively putting their capital at risk. The difference highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. As more people buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, indicating a growing expectation of a price increase. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd, offering a real-time assessment of probability. The current price reflects the probability of the gold price being higher at 7:00 AM ET than at 6:45 AM ET.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the difference between the gold price at 6:45 AM ET and 7:00 AM ET on October 20th. If the price at 7:00 AM ET is higher than at 6:45 AM ET, the 'up' contracts will pay out. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' contracts will pay out. The exact price source used for verification will be determined by Predict’s resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of gold. Monitoring these factors will be crucial in understanding potential shifts in this market.