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417,059

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5PM-5:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 5PM and 5:15PM ET on October 20th. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2. The total volume traded to date is $2. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track activity related to the anticipated gold price shift.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s short-term trajectory. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook, with a significant portion of traders anticipating a potential price decrease within the specified timeframe. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, offering a unique view compared to individual expert opinions or polls.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of a price increase, with the remaining probability assigned to a price decrease. Traders are constantly updating their positions, leading to dynamic price adjustments.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5PM and 5:15PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 5:15PM ET than at 5PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, are also key drivers. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements. Shifts in investor sentiment, driven by news headlines or analyst reports, could also lead to changes in trading activity within this market.