TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5AM-5:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$951

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5AM-5:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5AM-5:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5AM-5:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$225
$951
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T09:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T09:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $954, and the total volume traded to date, which is $951. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions about gold’s performance, this market allows traders to express their beliefs directly, leading to a potentially more accurate signal. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may be influenced by biases or rely on models that don’t fully capture all relevant factors. This market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a unique insight into the likely price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 AM ET and 5:15 AM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger a shift in market sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.