TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the specified timeframe. The dashboard allows you to see which outcome is favored by the crowd and how actively the market is being traded.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions about gold’s future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially revealing insights that are missed by individual experts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Examining the contrast between this market’s implied probabilities and those from financial news sources and expert opinions can offer a more comprehensive understanding of the potential price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic odds that respond to new information and changing perceptions of risk. This creates a real-time assessment of the probability of each outcome, driven entirely by user activity.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:30 PM ET and 5:45 PM ET on October 20th. An increase in price will favor the ‘Up’ outcome, while a decrease will favor the ‘Down’ outcome. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data and verified to ensure accuracy, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major currency fluctuations could play a role. Any significant news related to central bank policies or major gold-consuming industries could also shift the probabilities reflected in this market.