TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$37

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet on the outcome. It also shows the price history of the market, visualizing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $37. Total volume for this market is $37, providing insight into overall interest.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold's price movement, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, or to show a wider range of possible outcomes than typical forecasts suggest.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders bet on gold increasing, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:15 PM ET and 5:30 PM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The exact price change will be verified against reputable financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could cause traders to adjust their positions in this market, leading to noticeable price fluctuations.