TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$197

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:15 PM EST

predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $196, and the total volume traded to date, which is $197. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price changes in gold, offering insights beyond traditional polls or analyst reports.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on gold, but this market shows a more balanced outlook, it suggests traders may be incorporating factors not fully reflected in conventional analysis. This dynamic makes the market a valuable complement to standard financial reporting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, providing a forward-looking indicator of potential gold price movement. This differs from simply polling opinions, as traders have a financial stake in the accuracy of their predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between the opening price at 4:00 PM ET and the closing price at 4:15 PM ET on October 20th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major central bank announcements could trigger shifts in trader sentiment. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations or significant shifts in currency valuations could also move this market.