TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$609

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 5:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$200
$609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:45AM and 5:00AM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the current 24-hour trading volume of $546. Total volume for this market is currently $609. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of the gold price during this specific window.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, as traders weigh factors not always captured in standard analyses. Comparing this market to prevailing analyst expectations can offer a valuable, alternative viewpoint on potential price direction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:45AM and 5:00AM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 5:00AM ET than at 4:45AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The result will be determined by publicly available price data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of gold. A sudden shift in the US dollar’s strength could also influence trading activity.