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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,291

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,278, and the total market volume, which is $1,291. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially in the short term. This market represents a real-time assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence, offering a unique viewpoint compared to static analyst predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by informed traders reacting to news, economic data, and geopolitical events, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism. This allows for a liquid and efficient way to express and quantify expectations about gold’s future performance.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 4:15AM-4:30AM ET window on October 20th, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their predictions were accurate following the resolution time. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could move this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.