TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by October 20?

Volume:
$404

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $400. The total volume for this market is $404. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The dashboard is a central hub for monitoring activity and making informed decisions about this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts predict gold price movements based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potentially incorporating information not immediately available to analysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s valuable to consider both analyst opinions and the collective prediction reflected in this market when forming your own outlook.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements aren’t tied to any single analyst’s opinion but are a dynamic representation of the overall market sentiment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a real-time assessment of potential price changes.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – from 3:45 PM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time on October 20th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down based on publicly available data from established financial sources. The final price change will be the determining factor for settling this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or significant currency fluctuations could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of gold. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major gold-producing nations could also create volatility in this market.