TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$151

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$151
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $150, and the total volume traded to date, which is $151. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets for gold, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about short-term price movement directly. The collective wisdom of traders on Predict can sometimes anticipate market shifts before they are reflected in standard analyst reports. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may focus on long-term fundamentals while this market focuses on the outcome within the specified timeframe.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30 PM ET and 3:45 PM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that 15-minute window, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains the same, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite could move this market. Keep an eye on these factors as they develop, as they all have the potential to alter trader sentiment and the odds on Predict.