TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$259

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 3:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$198
$259
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on October 20th. You can view the historical price action of this market, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $258. The total volume traded to date is $259. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on how others are positioning themselves before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility due to macroeconomic factors, this market reflects a more immediate assessment of price movement within a specific timeframe. It’s important to note that analyst predictions often cover longer periods and broader trends, whereas this market focuses on a very short-term outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the real-time responsiveness of the prediction market to new information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of gold will go up or down within the specified window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘up’ outcome will win; if it decreases, the ‘down’ outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to central bank activity, particularly regarding interest rate decisions or quantitative easing, could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of gold. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength are also a key factor to watch, as gold is often priced in dollars.