TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$167

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:30PM and 2:45PM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how predictions have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $166. Total volume for this market is $167. This provides a comprehensive view of how traders are assessing the potential for price fluctuations in gold during this specific timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional advice, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of informed opinions. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when significant uncertainty exists or when analysts have conflicting viewpoints. This market provides a dynamic, real-time assessment of probabilities, adjusted continuously by traders responding to new information, which may differ from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified time window. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders believe gold will rise, the price of the 'up' contract increases, and vice versa. This creates a real-time indicator of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30PM and 2:45PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 2:45PM ET than at 2:30PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be successful; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be successful. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive price fluctuations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and move this market. Changes in currency exchange rates, especially the US dollar, are also key factors to watch.