TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$478

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $475. The total volume traded to date is $478. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the potential for price fluctuations in gold.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend due to inflation concerns, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts represent a single point of view, whereas this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what will actually happen with the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing expectations regarding the gold market.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 2:15PM-2:30PM ET window on October 20th. Whether the price moves up or down will determine which outcome is considered correct, and traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout. The precise price change will not be a factor; only the direction of the movement matters.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by the market and could trigger substantial price movements. Any significant shift in these areas could alter the probabilities reflected in this market.