TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$251

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1 PM and 1:15 PM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a visual representation of these probabilities, along with the total volume traded, currently at $251, and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $244. The dashboard also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the potential price action.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and recommendations for gold, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of individuals betting their own capital. This can lead to divergences, as prediction markets are sensitive to a wider range of information and potential catalysts than may be explicitly considered in standard analyst reports. It's common to see this market anticipating movements before they are widely reported or factored into traditional forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1 PM and 1:15 PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 1:15 PM ET than it was at 1 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices as they influence expectations for interest rate policy. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in currency valuations could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market.