TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 12AM-12:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$219

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 12AM-12:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 12AM-12:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 12:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 12AM-12:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. It also displays a price history chart reflecting how the probabilities have shifted over time, offering insight into trader sentiment. You can also view the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $219, and the total volume traded to date, which is $219. This information helps you understand market activity and potential trends within this specific prediction market.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market provides a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable gold price, the probabilities reflected here suggest a more dynamic expectation. It’s important to remember that prediction market odds represent what traders are willing to bet on, incorporating a wide range of information and potential catalysts. This offers a real-time, incentive-driven view that can complement, or even diverge from, conventional financial analysis and polling data.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the odds dynamically adjust as new information becomes available or as traders revise their expectations. This creates a constantly updating forecast of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 AM ET and 12:15 AM ET on October 20th, 2026. Whether the price increases or decreases during that timeframe will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, could also move the market. Finally, any significant news related to gold mining production or global gold reserves could also play a role in shaping trader sentiment and the odds in this market.