TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$152

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$152
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $152, and the total volume traded to date, which is $152. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold within the specified timeframe. The dashboard is updated continuously as traders buy and sell contracts.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a collective prediction about the likelihood of gold’s price moving up or down. This can lead to divergences, as the market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives than a single analyst might consider. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in mainstream financial news or expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be higher or lower by the close of trading on October 20th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price moving up, with higher prices suggesting a greater expectation of an increase. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:15 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 1:30 PM ET than at 1:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, such as interest rate changes, could trigger substantial price movements. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or weakness will also be a key signal to watch, as gold is typically priced in dollars.