TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$674

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$674
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $674, and the total volume traded to date, which is $674. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market expresses probabilities. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions reveals how crowd-sourced predictions align with, or diverge from, conventional financial analysis. Often, the market can incorporate new information more rapidly than traditional forecasts, potentially offering a more up-to-date perspective on the likely price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s consensus view, and traders are constantly adjusting their positions as new information becomes available, influencing the odds displayed on the dashboard. This dynamic pricing allows for a fluid and responsive market.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. No further details about the resolution process are available at this time.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and changes in investor sentiment towards riskier assets could all contribute to price fluctuations and, therefore, movement in this market. Unexpected news regarding gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could also play a role.