TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$739

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 12:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $725, and the total volume traded to date, which is $739. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for gold's price movement. The dashboard is a central place to monitor activity and understand market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions on gold’s future price, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to weigh various factors and express their beliefs directly through their trades. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially identifying overlooked opportunities or risks in the gold market, offering a unique signal compared to standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by posting bids and asks, and the market price converges as more trades occur. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities, influenced by news, economic data, and overall market sentiment regarding gold.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:45 PM and 12:00 AM ET on October 20, 2024. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the result of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Key economic indicators like inflation data, interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical events are all likely to influence gold prices. Unexpected news regarding global economic growth, currency fluctuations, or safe-haven demand could also trigger substantial shifts in trader sentiment. Additionally, any major announcements related to gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could impact the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements and the corresponding changes in this market.