TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

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2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$968

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $966, and the total volume traded to date, which is $968. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential direction of gold prices before Oct 20, 2026.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to inflation concerns, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Comparing these viewpoints can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy 'yes' shares if they believe gold will go up and 'no' shares if they believe it will go down. As more people buy 'yes' shares, the price of those shares increases, and vice versa. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of shares reflects the probability of the outcome as perceived by the traders on Predict, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations. This differs from static forecasts or polls.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:30 AM ET and 11:45 AM ET on October 20th. A price increase will result in a 'yes' outcome, while a price decrease will result in a 'no' outcome. The exact price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to determine the final result of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, major announcements from central banks regarding interest rate policy or quantitative easing could also cause substantial shifts in the market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price movements.