TOTAL VOLUME:

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410,833

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$87

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$244
$87
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T03:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T03:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $87. Total volume for this market is $87. This information allows you to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. The question of whether prediction markets outperform analyst forecasts is a subject of ongoing debate, but they offer a unique and often insightful view of future probabilities. It’s a useful exercise to compare the implied probabilities here with those offered by financial news sources.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:15 PM ET and 11:30 PM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 11:30 PM ET than at 11:15 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise determination is based on publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in monetary policy by central banks, like the Federal Reserve, could affect investor sentiment and the gold price. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they have the potential to cause substantial movement in this market.