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420,493

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$118

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$12
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $118, and the total market volume, which is $118. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of gold prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s price trajectory, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to a more accurate forecast, as traders are incentivized to be correct. It's common to see discrepancies between the consensus of expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd as expressed in this market, particularly when unexpected events occur or sentiment shifts rapidly. Examining these differences can be insightful.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price effectively represents the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood of the gold price increasing. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:45 AM ET and 11:00 AM ET on October 20th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often move gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or escalating international tensions, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rates, are closely watched by gold traders. Unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move this market.