TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$341

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 9:45AM and 10:00AM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with a price history showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $339, and the total volume traded to date, which is $341. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of factors, including real-time news and sentiment. Comparing this market to the average analyst forecast reveals how traders weigh these different inputs, potentially providing a more nuanced view of expectations for the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:45AM and 10:00AM ET on October 19th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, also tend to drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.