TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

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2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

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5

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37%

VS.

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$309

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $308. Total volume for this market is $309. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different view than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding short-term gold price movements. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced expectation. It's important to remember that analysts often rely on models and long-term trends, while this market represents the collective, real-time assessment of informed traders focused on a very specific timeframe. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified window. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. The closer we get to the resolution time, the more sensitive the price becomes to new information and trading activity. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 9:45AM ET than at 9:30AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely-recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise political developments, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could trigger price movements. Finally, large institutional trades or announcements from prominent investors could also cause shifts in this market’s probabilities.