TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$209

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 8:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8PM-8:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified window. It displays the implied probabilities for each outcome, along with the total volume traded—currently $209—and the 24-hour volume, which is $209. You can also view the price history to see how sentiment has shifted over time. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe will happen with the gold price, all within Predict.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility in the gold market due to global economic uncertainty, this market reflects a more immediate, real-time assessment of price direction. Comparing this to polls of financial experts reveals a range of opinions, but the dynamic nature of this market allows for rapid adjustments based on new information, unlike static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the odds you see reflect the collective assessment of all participants trading on Predict, and are constantly updating as new information becomes available. The market’s pricing mechanism aims to provide a probabilistic forecast of the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM ET on October 19th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price change will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure an objective assessment.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also drive substantial price fluctuations. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite could influence trading activity in this market. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they are likely to affect the odds.