TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$86

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:30AM and 8:45AM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $82. The total volume for this market is $86, indicating overall interest. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast based on traders' insights. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they incorporate a wider range of information and real-time adjustments based on new developments. While analysts may offer specific price targets, this market represents a probabilistic view of whether the price will be up or down within the specified timeframe. It’s interesting to compare the market’s implied probability to the consensus view of financial experts, though the market isn’t necessarily trying to predict the exact price change.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the gold price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated wisdom of participants, offering a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, reacting to news and information, and influencing the market's overall direction.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial data provider, moved up or down between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM ET on October 19th. The final price change will be assessed against established benchmarks to determine the winning outcome in this market, reflecting the collective prediction of traders.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in investor sentiment could move this market. Keep an eye on financial news and market commentary for potential catalysts that might shift the odds.