TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-8PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$35

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 8:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:45PM-8PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $35, and the total volume traded to date, which is $35. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate movements before they are reflected in mainstream forecasts, or to assign different probabilities to various outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict, and represents the market’s expectation of the likelihood of each outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – 7:45PM-8:00PM ET on October 19th. A definitive price change will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market resolves in favor of ‘Up’ or ‘Down’. The final price movement will be the determining factor for the market’s outcome.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, are another key influence. Finally, major news related to global economic growth or currency fluctuations could all contribute to shifts in the gold price and, consequently, the odds in this market.