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419,492

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$100

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced the outcome over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $101, and the total market volume, which is $100. This provides a comprehensive overview of trader sentiment regarding the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information and react to events more quickly than traditional analysis. Examining these differences can provide valuable insight into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional forecasting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectation of the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to probabilities as new information becomes available, providing a constantly updated assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 7:30 AM ET than at 7:15 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or escalating conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate changes, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprising news related to these areas could cause substantial movement in this market.