TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$290,393,159

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2,984,640,614

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$76

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 6:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6AM-6:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 6:00 AM and 6:15 AM Eastern Time on October 19th. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart illustrating how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $76. The total volume traded to date is $76, providing insight into overall market interest. This information allows traders to assess sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets for gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. This can lead to divergences, especially when anticipating short-term movements like the one considered here. It’s common to see this market incorporate information and react to news more quickly than slower-moving analyst reports. Examining the difference between the two can offer a more complete picture of expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of gold increasing in value, with higher prices suggesting greater confidence in an upward movement. Traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 AM and 6:15 AM Eastern Time on October 19th. If the price is higher at 6:15 AM than at 6:00 AM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, is likely to affect investor sentiment towards gold. A sudden shift in the US dollar’s strength or weakness could also play a role, as gold is often priced in dollars.