TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$344

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 6:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $342, and the total volume traded to date, which is $344. This information allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, and the ability of the market to rapidly adjust to new information. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to a price increase within the specified time frame, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward movement. The market is entirely driven by user activity on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:30 AM ET and 6:45 AM ET on October 19th. A price increase during this period will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a price decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The specific price data used for verification will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could play a role. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or significant movements in global stock markets could also move this market, as investors often view gold as a safe-haven asset.