TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 5:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the historical price action of this market. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded, currently at $2, and the 24-hour volume, which is $2. This provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream financial commentary.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, making it a dynamic and real-time indicator of expectations. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:15PM-5:30PM ET window on October 19th. If the price is higher at 5:30PM ET than at 5:15PM ET, the 'up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or trade tensions, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Finally, major news related to gold mining production or demand from key consumers like China and India could also shift the odds in this market.