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410,482

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$131

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 19th. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $131, and the total market volume, which is $131. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional biases based on economic indicators, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unforeseen events that analysts might not immediately account for. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets in capturing real-time sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final price of gold between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 19th will be used to determine whether the market settles on 'up' or 'down'. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available gold price index, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, can impact the gold price. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market expectations could lead to substantial changes in the odds within this market.